Almost every newspaper, news channel and news sites are shouting India is the third most powerful nation only after the US and China citing a single source, a new official US report. The report is prepared consulting with experts from emerging economies China, Russia, India and Brazil apart from other nations. Some fictionalized scenarios are used to interpret how the nations are going to fare after fifteen years i.e. 2025.
At present, the US tops all nations having 22 percent of the global power. The European Union and China take the second place. As the EU is not a single nation but an arrangement, its place is notional. They both hold 16 percent each of the global power. India holds 8 percent of the global power according the report. The other prominent countries like Japan, Russia and Brazil follow India with less than 5 percent power.
The US report says further that by 2025 the power of the US, the EU and Japan will decline, while the power of China, India and Brazil will increase, with respect to one’s own power. It means that the places are not going to be interchanged but gaps are narrowed.
By 2025, the US still remain the most powerful but with lessened power of 18 percent of the world power. China will be there in second place but with increased power of 16 percent, and India in third place with increased 10 percent power. The European Union as a whole will have 14 percent of the global power.
Interestingly, the report mentions, “On one hand, rapid globalization, economic and otherwise, has led to an intertwining of domestic politics and international issues and fueled the need for more cooperation and more effective leadership.” This may imply, in future, there could not be much prominence to domestic politics and economics with the unleashing of global politics and economics. That could be the true globalization, indeed!
The prominent emerging economies like China, India and Brazil are implementing decisively the policies of liberalization, privatization and globalization (LPG). That is why they have become prominent among international investors, investment banks and multinational companies.
LPG policies are allowing these international players to exploit natural and human resources of these countries. They are providing safe passage to move in and out of these countries with less if not no, hurdle.
GATT agreement and its successor WTO, IMF and WB, apart from Doha Round, are there to ensure that these countries follow what is important and necessary for the multiplication of the wealth of the international economic and financial players.
Military bases all over the world, guard the entire world to check if the countries are going for unnecessary buildup of military power of their own, unless supplied by the military manufacturers of the US or at times, the other West. The US supplies arms to India and Pakistan, thereby benefiting from both of the rivals at the same time increasing their rivalry with injected arms race. The US fuelled arms race would effectively check both countries not developing their own military technology. Arms should be there; race should be there; but, both should be under control.
In this scenario, it is hardly a fact that the emerging economies are becoming powerful to counter the US power. There may be a situation where it appears that the world is moving towards a multi-polar, in place of unipolar with the US at the center.
As of now, we cannot say the world would definitely become unipolar or any polar, because the economic power that is being assumed to belong to the emerging economies is actually the power of various financial and business conglomerates. Moreover, the said power ultimately reaches the west as the conglomerates and financials (MNCs, TNCs, FDIs, FIIs etc…) belong there.
Therefore, there is no case of joy for the people of the emerging economies. The upper strata of those countries, below 1 percent of their population, are already joyful with increasing balances in their bank accounts abroad. India’s human development index is lower than some African countries. India slipped 2 points to 51 in WEF rankings, WEF stated in its report just 10 days back. Without the empowerment of the toiling masses of a nation, its ranking in the world, based on a few wealthy, people is simply a myth. Myths empower nothing.